What does the second half of 2025 have in store for us?

June 2025 by Mario Pires

Recent months have been marked by unusual decisions and reversals in U.S. trade policy, with shifts that heighten uncertainty for both households and businesses. Investors are no exception, and many react heatedly to these announcements. Driven by sentiment, they contribute to sharp market movements that unfold in step with each decision and reversal.

So only a crystal ball could help us guess what's in store for the second half of the year, but the unpredictability that has defined recent events is likely to persist, with many of its effects felt on a global scale. 

It is important, however, to understand that the falls caused in the markets have already been largely recovered. Historical data confirms that it tends to go like this: disruptive events such as the announcement of tariffs, 9/11, or the invasion of Ukraine cause sharp but short-lived declines and do not require a complete overhaul of long-term investment strategies, which are grounded in what truly matters – the fundamentals.

Moreover, fears created by political or geopolitical issues may be less relevant to investment than their initial impact suggests and do not negate opportunities in the second half of 2025.

Six rules for navigating uncertainty

1. Calm: not giving to impulsive and indiscriminate selling movements, which lead to losses, and leveraging downturns to identify assets of companies that are unfairly undervalued by these disruptions. For example, declines of more than 10% in stock markets are common in most years, and despite the volatility, the European market is experiencing its best start to a year in over half a century, compared to the US.
2. Long-term vision: historical data confirms that persistence pays off, particularly in equity markets, which have outperformed other asset classes in the long term, despite experiencing more pronounced fluctuations in the short term. At the same time, it is important to maintain positions in sectors that, despite being penalized by the context, have structural growth potential.
3. Active and selective analysis: opportunities continue to exist across different regions, sectors, and companies. Proactive and selective analysis is essential to identify geographies, sectors, and organizations that are less impacted by potential tariffs, such as those operating in more defensive areas (e.g., essential goods and services) and that are aligned with major structural trends such as deglobalization (relocation of production closer to supply), demographics (healthcare and technology, in response to an aging population and a shrinking workforce), and decarbonization (energy transition).
4. Focus on quality and resilience: identifying companies with solid fundamentals, long-term plans, diversified distribution chains, efficient management, and strong competitive positions is crucial to obtaining better risk-adjusted returns. Historical data shows that, more than global and local policies, it is company fundamentals – and their ability to generate value – that are the main drivers of returns.
5. Global diversification: The rule of “not putting all your eggs in one basket” advises a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks and leverage opportunities in sectors, geographies, and asset classes with less correlation between them. Asset diversification should include the analysis of all available classes – from equities to government and corporate bonds, including high-yield debt and investment-grade credit, as well as commodities (gold, for example, is a safe haven in uncertain times), currencies, and private assets.
6. Active management: continuously monitoring economic and monetary indicators, as well as the behavior of markets and companies, and tracking major structural trends to make strategic adjustments that help achieve the best risk-return ratio.

It's not always easy for an investor to reconcile all these rules, but that's what experts at asset management companies like Schroders do. Supported by analytical teams and tools, you have the information and flexibility to proactively explore opportunities (and mitigate risks) resulting from the reconfiguration of global trade or other disruptions that may arise in the second half of the year.